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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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