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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a much more significant shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.