Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the almost lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

David Herrera
David Herrera

A passionate software engineer with over a decade of experience in full-stack development and open-source contributions.